Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe

Abstract. Global soil water availability is challenged by the effects of climate change and a growing population. On average, 70 % freshwater extraction attributed to agriculture, demand increasing. In this study, on evolution irrigation requirement sustain current crop productivity are assessed using Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) growth model AquaCrop version 6.1. The run at 0.5?lat×0.5?long resolution over European mainland, assuming general C3-type crop, forced input data from Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase three (ISIMIP3). First, surface moisture (SSM) with two types ISIMIP3 historical meteorological datasets evaluated satellite-based SSM estimates in ways. When driven ISIMIP3a reanalysis meteorology, daily simulated values have an unbiased root mean square difference 0.08 0.06 m3 m?3, retrievals Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Active Passive (SMAP) missions, respectively, for years 2015–2016 (2016 end year data). ISIMIP3b meteorology five global models (GCMs) 2015–2020, climatology closely agrees climatologies. Second, quantify future requirement, ensemble GCMs different emission scenarios. net (Inet) summer months near far period (2031–2060 2071–2100) compared baseline 1985–2014 assess changes interannual variability demand. Averaged continent ensemble, Inet expected increase 22 mm per month (+30 %) under high-emission scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3–7.0. Central southern Europe most impacted, larger increases. likely northern central Europe, whereas decrease regions. Under high mitigation (SSP1–2.6), will stabilize around 13 towards century, still but smaller extent. results emphasize large uncertainty projected various GCMs.